题目：Emergency Department Modeling and Staffing: Time-Varying Physician Productivity
邀请人：刘冉 副教授 （工业工程与管理系）
欧阳会银博士，研究领域：随机系统建模与分析、动态规划、仿真分析、数据驱动的决策分析、服务与医疗运营管理，多篇论文在Operations Research、Management Science、Manufacturing & Service Operations Management等期刊发表。
Motivated by time-varying physician productivity in emergency departments (EDs), we employ optimal control theory, namely Pontryagin’s principle, to analyze physicians' transient behavior during shifts. We find that this behavior is primarily influenced by shift-based scheduling. We use time-varying patient-per-hour (PPH) data to model the ED as a dynamic multi-server queue. Our simulations, validated with Canadian ED data, reveal that our model accurately predicts patient wait times compared to constant service rates. This highlights the importance of considering time-varying service rates for precise ED modeling. Our approach simplifies performance evaluation, aiding physician staffing optimization, resulting in significant cost savings in practice.